题记：2023年6月30日上午，北京大学南南学院2023年毕业典礼在北大承泽园举行。世贸组织副总干事、中国商务部前副部长张向晨为本届典礼的特邀嘉宾。本文根据张向晨在典礼上的演讲整理，题目为编者所加。
尊敬的林毅夫院长，姚洋执行院长，各位老师，各位同学，
(资料图片仅供参考)
今天能来参加北京大学南南学院的毕业典礼非常开心。其实，过去每年这个时候，尽管我在国外，我会收到国内同事发来的学院毕业典礼照片，每次我都会仔细地端详然后收藏起来，并从心底为学院不断取得的进步感到高兴。
7年前，我有幸参与了南南学院的设计和筹建，并在这里和林毅夫教授共同为南南学院的启动揭幕。那时，我代表中国政府对外援助的主管部门对南南学院提出了三个发展愿景：第一，成为最有吸引力的国家发展研究机构；第二，成为最具潜力的发展中国家高端人才培训基地；第三，成为最具活力的发展中国家沟通交流平台。
7年过去了，这三个愿景正在一步步变成现实。来自70多个国家的300多名同学，成就斐然，灿若星辰。我曾请学院的老师和同学参加过世贸组织的活动，与其他发展中国家分享南南学院教学和实践成果，得到热烈的反响。
林毅夫教授说过，理论的适用性取决于环境的相似性。对此，我深以为然，也经常在国际场合引用。中国经过了几十年的快速发展，但在量的充分性和质的平衡性两个方面都还有漫长的道路要走。正因为如此，我们对发展中国家发展的目标、需求、困难感同身受，包括政府在制定战略规划、实施产业政策、保障公平竞争中起到的重要作用。也因为我们分别处在工业化进程的中期和初期，我们在产业上有广阔的合作空间。
我不知道今天有没有孟加拉国的同学在，我今年3月去达卡参加孟加拉投资论坛，并和孟加拉政府研究孟加拉2026年从最不发达国家毕业的过渡安排。活动之后，我要求主办方带我参观一个纺织厂，因为30年前我曾经在中国的纺织厂工作过。在孟加拉我看到的是现代化的厂房和设备，以及与国际市场的无缝衔接。现在孟加拉已是仅次于中国的世界第二大服装出口国。
孟加拉还有更具雄心水平的目标，即在2041年人均GDP达到发达国家的水平。在日内瓦有人嘲笑这个目标。但是，中国的GDP用17年在一个相对较高的基础上由2000年到2017年增长了10倍，为什么孟加拉用20几年的时间在一个相对低的基础上增长10倍就不行呢？
过去几年，全球贸易呈现出两个特征—— 易感性和韧性。易感性意味着当危机发生时，贸易会做出非常敏感和激切的反应。但震荡过后，又能较为迅速地恢复常态。而全球供应链的韧性表明，自由贸易条件下的比较优势仍然是商业决策的主要考虑因素。同时我想指出，自由贸易既不是偶然的，也不应被视为理所当然。世贸组织估计，疫情期间，超过75%的国际贸易能够正常进行，那是因为多边贸易体系的规则一直在发挥着作用。因此，整个国际社会应该坚持多边贸易体制，同时推进世贸组织改革，更新多边规则，与时俱进。
毫无疑问，世界经济贸易格局正在发生缓慢的、构造性的变化，这种变化必然带来经济利益分配的调整。对落后国家来说，这是挑战也是机遇。
WTO经济学家进行的一项模拟研究显示，如果发生脱钩，全球贸易即将分裂为两个或多个不同的区块。长期来看，全球GDP将因专业化程度和技术溢出效应的下降而减少5%，相当于4.4万亿美元，这还不包括规模经济缩减造成的损失，以及转型成本、资源配置等其他因素。而且，世贸组织经济学家认为，较贫穷的国家将不成比例地承担这些损失。
安全考虑在决策中的分量正在上升。这不仅包括政府层面的国家安全和经济安全问题，还包括商业层面的供应链安全。在世贸组织规则框架下如何更有效地处理安全问题，值得我们进行系统性地思考。
数字化正在给生产和贸易带来重大变化。例如，数字技术模糊了商品和服务之间的界限，带来了新的机遇，同时也进一步凸显了数字鸿沟的问题。
环境问题对贸易的影响也越来越大。这包括气候和环境对行业本身的影响，也包括环境保护措施对贸易的影响。可以预见，环境政策在未来国际供应链布局中的作用会进一步凸显。
在残酷的国际竞争中，没有人承诺你一定会胜出，也没有人担保你不会被甩在后面。只有一种情况是确定的，那就是放弃竞争者注定是失败者。
国际规则的重构过程也是一种竞争，我经常在日内瓦对发展中国家的代表说，“不为座上客，即为盘中餐”。这样说很直率，好像也有点不太符合外交官的身份，但那是因为我看到了发展中国家在规则制订参与程度上的差距，忧心如焚，不能不大声疾呼。
根据我的观察，在国际规则的博弈中，防守利益往往比较容易看到，但要实现却不容易，因为你的要求需要得到别人的同意，比如，发展中国家目前对希望获得特殊和差别待遇的要求就遇到了很大的困难。这是中国人说的“知易行难”。进攻利益往往难以认识到或者容易被忽视，但往往具有重要的战略价值，而且一旦认识到了，反而相对容易实现，因为你只要勇敢地融入到世界的潮流中，遵守通行的国际规则，同时在参与的过程中进行必要的国内政策调整。这就是中国人说的“知难行易”。
发展中国家的差距在哪里？归根到底，差距在能力上、在知识上。所以，请你们带着你们在北大和中国的所学所悟，特别是新结构经济学的理论方法回到你们的国家，用适当的方式影响你们国家的政策导向，以更加积极的方式融入经济全球化，融入多边贸易体制。通过个体的和集体的努力，维护自身的防守利益，追求进攻利益。
北京大学是我的母校，是我的也是在座的同学们永远的精神家园。近年有一首歌“燕园情”很火。“红楼飞雪，一时豪杰”……，尽管它不是我们上学时候的歌，我还是非常喜欢。但是，其中有一句歌词，“我们明天巨木成林，让中华震惊世界。” 我觉得值得商榷。我们为什么要震惊世界呢？我们应该与世界和谐相处，携手同行才对。
我在担任中国驻世贸组织大使时，代表团修了一个多功能厅，湖南的两位画家王金石和石纲先生友情赞助，联袂创作了一幅山水画——《南岳揽胜》，请我在上面题字。盛情难却，我就在上面写了一首诗：“四面云飞眼底风，身临高处自从容。七十二峰争绝秀，松波万顷共葱茏。”
我从事多边贸易工作三十年了，这首诗反映的是我对多边体制的一种情感和信念，那就是只有一起努力，才能实现共同的目标。我询问过很多来访的外国客人，从这幅画和这首诗看出了什么？他们无一例外地回答：多边主义精神。
最后，请允许我向毕业的同学们致以热烈地祝贺。你们即将踏上职业生涯的新旅程，我相信你们在北大度过的日子会成为未来岁月的美好回忆。我期待着与你们合作，共同成为全球发展的实践者和多边主义的维护者。
SPEAKER：
Zhang Xiangchen,
Deputy Director General of WTO
Distinguished Prof. Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development
Distinguished Prof. Yao Yang, Executive Dean of ISSCAD
Dear colleagues, ladies, and gentlemen
I am very delighted to attend the graduation ceremony of the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development of the Peking University. Over the past years, even though I was not in China, I would receive photos of the Institute’s graduation ceremony from my colleagues. It’s always heartening to see the joyful faces of the students and the colleagues of the institute. I would look carefully at each photo and keep them in a collection. Each time, I felt truly delighted for the continuous progress made by the institute.
Seven years ago, I had the honour to be involved in designing and establishing the South-South Institute, and unveiling it together with Professor Lin Yifu right here at the Peking University. I remember that at the unveiling ceremony, representing the foreign aid agency of the Chinese government, I put forward three visions for the Institute: first, to become the most attractive research institution on development studies; second, to become the top-notch training base for high-end talents from developing countries; and third, to become the most vibrant platform for communication and exchange among developing countries.
Seven years have passed, and these three visions are advancing steadily on the right path to becoming a reality. More than 300 students from over 70 countries have achieved remarkable accomplishments, through their studies at the Institute. I have invited some of them to participate in the activities of the World Trade Organization. They shared their perspectives on global trade, as well as their experiences and accomplishments at the Institute with the delegates from other developing countries and received overwhelmingly positive responses.
Professor Lin Yifu once said, the applicability of an economic theory largely depends on the similarity of the environment where it is put into practice. I strongly agree with this statement, and I have often quoted it in international occasions.
China has gone through decades of rapid development, but there is still a long way to go in terms of achieving full-fledged and balanced economic and social development. It is because of the similarities that China shares with the other developing countries – in terms of challenges, aspirations and constraints – we can truly empathize with your goals, needs, and actions. And we share a lot in our understandings, including on the important role that the government needs to play - in formulating strategic plans, implementing industrial policies, and ensuring fair competition.
In addition to that, because we are at different stages of industrialization, we have broad scope for cooperation in the industrial sectors.
I don"t know if there are any Bangladeshi students here today, I was in Dhaka in March to attend the Bangladesh Business Summit . I discussed with the Bangladeshi government about the transition arrangement for the country’s graduation from the least developed countries category by 2026.
After the event, I asked the organizers to take me to visit a textile factory, because I had worked in a textile factory in China over 30 years ago. The organizers brought me to a factory producing garments for export. What I saw was modern facilities and up-to-date equipment, and the company is seamlessly integrated into the global market.
Bangladesh is now the world"s second-largest exporter of garments, second only to China.
Bangladesh has an ambitious goal, aiming to elevate its per capita GDP to the rank of developed countries by 2041. Some people in Geneva find this goal to be too ambitious. I told them - it took China 17 years to increase its GDP by 10 times from 2000 to 2017, starting from a higher base. So why it’s so hard to imaging Bangladesh increasing its GDP by more than 10 times in 20 years, starting from a relatively lower base?
In the past few years, the global trade presents two features - susceptivity and tenacity. Susceptivity means that when a crisis occurs, trade will respond very sensitively and quickly. However, after the shock, it can quickly return to normal. This tenacity of global supply chains shows that comparative advantage under free trade conditions is still the main consideration in business decision-making. At the same time, I would like to point out that free trade is neither accidental nor should be taken for granted. The WTO estimates that during the epidemic, more than 75% of international trade went on normally. That is because the rules of the multilateral trading system have been working there.
So, the whole international community should adhere to the multilateral trading system, and at same time pursue the WTO reform and update the multilateral rules to keep pace with the times.
There is no doubt that the global economic and trade landscape is undergoing a gradual yet structural change, which inevitably leads to adjustments and redistribution of economic benefits. For the less developed countries, this change represents both opportunities and challenges.
A simulation conducted by WTO economists shows that if decoupling, that is, breaking global trade into two or more distinct blocks, will reduce global GDP by 5% in the long run due to diminished specialization and technology spillovers, equivalent to roughly $4.4 trillion, before taking into account losses caused by reduced-scale economies, transition costs, resource allocations and other factors .And the WTO economists believe that cost would be borne disproportionately by poorer countries.
The weight of security considerations is rising in decision making. This includes not only the national security and economic security concerns at the government level, but also the supply chain security at the business level. It worth a systematic thinking on how to deal with security issues more effectively in the WTO rule.
Digitization is bringing about significant changes in production and trade. For example, digital technology has blurred the boundaries between goods and services, which brings new opportunities, at same time has further highlighted the problem of the digital divide.
Environmental issues also have an increasing impact on trade. This includes both the impact of climate and the environment on the industry itself, as well as the impact of environmental protection measures on trade. It is foreseeable that the environmental policies will further weight up in the future international supply chain layout.
Competition in the international market is harsh, no one can guarantee the success, but no one should be left behind. In all these uncertainties, there is only one thing that is certain: giving up is no option.
The process of reshaping international rules is also a form of competition. I’ve often told representatives of developing countries in Geneva, "If you are not at the table, you"re probably on the menu". These words may sound too straightforward and even blunt, not fitting the profile of a diplomat, but I have to say them because I have seen the gaps in the level of participation in rulemaking by developing countries, and I am deeply concerned that if we don’t take urgent actions, the future rules will be even less favourable to developing countries.
In negotiating trade rules, countries weigh their positions against their defensive and offensive interests. My observation is that defensive interests are usually easy to see, but difficult to achieve, because whatever you put on the table need to be agreed upon by others. For example, developing countries currently face great challenges in obtaining special and differential treatment, because there’re all kinds of efforts to make this deviation meaningless and hard to use. This is what we say in Chinese "knowing is easy but doing is hard".
On the other hand, offensive interests are often more difficult to see and are easily overlooked. But it is the offensive interests that have significant and strategic value, including for developing countries. Once you recognize your offensive interests, it is relatively easier to achieve them, because all you need to do is to bravely embrace global trade, abide by the prevailing international rules, and make necessary domestic policy adjustments to increase trade and investment. This is what we call "knowing is hard but doing is easy".
I mentioned there’re significant gaps in the level of participation by developing countries in rulemaking, but where are those gaps? As we know, they lie in capabilities and knowledge. Therefore, I urge you to put the knowledge and wisdom that you have gained - through studying at Peking University and in China，in particular the theoretical method of the New Structural Economics- into good use when you return home, find appropriate ways to apply them in policymaking, safeguard your defensive interests and pursue offensive interests, embrace economic globalization, make use of the multilateral trading system, and reap the benefits from trade for your country and your people.
I studied at Peking University myself, so in that sense we all share an eternal spiritual home. There is a popular song in recent years, called "Yanyuan Qing", or “Affection for the Yanyuan”. I’m sure you all know that Yanyuan means Peking University. I liked the lyrics in this song: "Red-brick mansions, snow gently bestow, let us strive, to be the heroes in winter"s show". This wasn"t a song from the time of my school days, but I still really like it.
However, there is another line in the song that says, "Tomorrow, let the trees tower, the world will know our power". I find this line somewhat debatable. Why do we need the world know our power? We should all live peacefully and harmoniously, and strive together hand in hand, to make our world a better land.
When I served as the Chinese Ambassador to the World Trade Organization, we renovated a meeting room in our mission’s building. Two artists from Hunan province, Mr. Wang Jinshi and Mr. Shi Gang kindly offered a joint landscape painting titled "Splendour of the Heng Mountains". They asked me to write an inscription on it. With gratitude, I wrote a line for the painting, which says “The 72 peaks of the Heng, each splendid on its own; only with the underpinning pine groves, they join into a magnificent crown”.
As someone who has been working on multilateral issues for 3 decades, this poem reflects my feeling and belief about the multilateral system. Only by working together, can we achieve our shared goals. I had many visitors to the mission, they saw the painting and the poem, and they all said that it truly embodies the spirit of multilateralism.
Lastly, please allow me to extend warm congratulations to all of you on your graduation. You are about to embark on a new chapter in your professional life, and I hope the days you spent at Peking University will remain cherished memories for years to come. I look forward to collaborating with you, as practitioners of global development and defenders of the multilateralism.
